Who Will Win?

The best thing about gaming is showing how gaming is a perfect analog for the real human experience.

Okay. That might not be 100% true.

So, according to Politics as Usual, who will win the 2020 Presidential election, Trump or Biden?

In the game, the winner is the Candidate who captures the most Votes.

Votes are scored by winning Issues. Each Issue nets the winner a specific number of Votes, from -3 to +5.

Issues are won by skillful card play.

Here are the results:

Abortion (-3 Votes)
Biden sticks this Issue with Trump even though neither candidate looks good here. The Kavanaugh hearings nudge this in favor of Biden. Running Score: Trump -3; Biden 0.

Balanced Budget (-3 OR +3)
Neither candidate wins this issue. Trump’s tax changes have not improved the budget situation and the COVID-19 bills have blown the budget. Biden would have and will also push for more spending. Running Score: Trump -3; Biden 0.

Business (2 Votes)
Trump wins this issue handily. Unemployment rates prior to the lockdown were in a free-fall and the stock market is doing well in spite of the lockdown. Running Score: Trump -1; Biden 0.

Church & State (-1 Vote)
Both candidates’s actions are poorly aligned with any religion I recognize. Neither pushes for more government interference with regular churches. However, Biden wins this issue because members of his party push for a moratorium on group church services while promoting other select mass gatherings. Running Score: Trump -1; Biden -1.

Civil Liberties (1 Vote)
Nether candidate holds an advantage here. Running Score: Trump -1; Biden -1.

Education (4 Votes)
I think this Issue is overrated as to its Vote total. Biden asserts pushing more money into a broken system (K-12) fixes it. (Hint: It usually doesn’t.) Forgiving college debt may be merciful but will likely have epic reverberations throughout the fabric of the country, almost all bad. Trump appointed Betsy DeVos. Love her or hate her. Shrug. I give this issue to neither candidate. Running Score: Trump -1; Biden -1.

Energy Policy (3 Votes)
This is an issue that the country really needs in order to better deal with near-peer adversaries and establish competent forward action. No winners here. Running Score: Trump -1; Biden -1.

Environmentalists (2 Votes)
What is with these candidates? A good environmental policy would clean up superfund sites, push a bit on clean energy, but mostly change trade policy to enact tariffs and other mechanisms to make trade with polluting countries more onerous. Biden has been working this for a half century. Solved nothing. Trump has no priority here, but if I did award the issue, I might hand it to him because his trade policy will tend to punish countries with poorer environmental records, even if that is just by happenstance. Running Score: Trump -1; Biden -1.

Foreign Policy (3 Votes)
This is an easy Trump win. No idea where the engagement with North Korea will lead. Probably a dead end but there may be more to see. A peace process in the middle east? Interesting. The US standing up to China? Good. Running Score: Trump +2; Biden -1.

Gun Control (-2 Votes)
Biden adds this crown of thorns, not so much for what he has done directly, but by association with politicians with activist agendas here. This may come home to roost. Running Score: Trump +2; Biden -3.

Immigration (1 Vote)
Trump wants that wall. For folks for whom this is important, this will give him the issue. Running Score: Trump +3; Biden -3.

Law & Order (2 Votes)
Trump will win this one by breaking up gangs of rioters and looters and generally supporting police. Running Score: Trump +5; Biden -3.

Mom & Apple Pie (5 Votes)
Both candidates are creepy. Neither wins here. Move along. Nothing to see. Running Score: Trump +5; Biden -3.

Social Programs (1 Vote)
I give this to Biden. His stated priority of social programs is higher than Trump’s. I expect he’s good on follow through for this one. Running Score: Trump +5; Biden -2.

Social Security (3 Votes)
This could be one that Trump gives to Biden. There is a lot of false noise about the purpose and effects of Trump’s payroll tax deferments that could hurt Trump. Weak sauce. Running Score: Trump +5; Biden 0.

War on Terror (4 Votes)
Hard to find a winner here. Trump is trying to pull troops out of the Middle East/Central Asia. Does that mean this is a win? Shrug. Running Score: Trump +5; Biden 0.

So, final score, Trump with 5 Votes and Biden with 0 Votes, Trump wins re-election come November.

Discuss.

Politics as Usual

Politics as Usual is a cool, family card game we published in 2004. Three to six players play (mostly) real Presidential candidates in a mad scramble to take the White House.

In the last two weeks in particular, social media has become a frenzy of political posts. I thought it might be fun to see if the game is a good predictor of the actual election a few months from now. Let’s run the numbers and see.

Before I get to the numbers, note that I will try to hosts a Facebook Live! event tomorrow, Sunday 16 August at 15:00 EST/12:00 PST. The topic will be game design and campaign decisions for our imminent re-release of Politics as Usual. If you ever wanted to see how the sausage is made in a real-live game design and development session, we encourage you to join us.